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When might we get back towards normal activity? Jan 2020


The roll-out of the Oxford vaccine is obviously good news for when we get back to normal activities will depend significantly upon the speed of this roll-out.

A link to a calculator referenced in the Independent Newspaper – based upon government priorities and likely vaccination rates – is given below.

It’s worth a look at but do treat it with proper skepticism given the wide confidence limits around vaccination rates (  you can change various parameters to explore other scenarios within the calculator.)

Some people express surprise at how long this seems to take. You have to remember that if you’re giving the second ‘booster’ injection but keep the numbers injected per week the same the no-one new would be vaccinated for the next 12 weeks etc. Doubtless we can have faith that our leaders have thought this all of this through as part of their strategic planning.

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